Climate change and health in Ireland A national vulnerability爱尔兰的气候变化和健康的国家脆弱性.ppt

The most important challenge is the limited capacity for research and adaptation in low- and middle-income countries” IPCC Fourth Report 2007 Conclusion Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life support systems Climate is a life supporting system We need to address the causes “We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006 I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth Environmental Protection Agency Thank you Trinity International Development Initiative Dr. Elizabeth Cullen 10th November 2011 ‘Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’ Hippocrates 400 B.C Summary of presentation Climate change Impacts on health Conclusions Source: Hadley Centre 2005 Source: Hadley Centre 2005 Climate model A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004) Impacts of climate change on health in Ireland Temperature related mortality Food-borne disease Water-borne disease Vector-borne diseases Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancer Reductions in mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and principally in the over 75 age group Future changes in temperature related mortality 2010 - 39 2040 - 69 2070 - 99 % Change in mortality -1.0 (-0.4 - 2.3) -2.1 (-1.2 - 3.5) -4.3 (-2.1 - 6.9) Foodborne disease Foodborne disease For every 1 degree rise in mean temperature: Salmonella 8% rise Campylobacter 6% rise VTEC 6% rise Wate