建筑物地震次生火灾的贝叶斯网络推理模型研究..docVIP

建筑物地震次生火灾的贝叶斯网络推理模型研究 颜峻 讲师 (中国劳动关系学院 安全工程系，北京 100048) 收稿日期：2013-07-02；修稿日期：2013-00-00 学科分类与代码：6201030（灾害学） 中图分类号： X43 文献标志码：A 资助项目：中国劳动关系学院院级科研项目“地震次生灾害事件演化机理及系统动力学模型研究”（编号：13YY002） 【摘要】为了研究地震过程中建筑物内部燃气管道泄漏后引发次生火灾的演化路径，通过对地震次生火灾蔓延过程分析，构建了反映城市地震燃气泄漏次生火灾发展各阶段中间原因事件之间依赖关系的贝叶斯网络，确定了节点变量及其状态取值范围。通过对国内外地震灾害记录和专家经验判断结论的分析，给出了贝叶斯网络结构中各节点变量的条件概率。依据贝叶斯网络推理方法，比较了地震特征及建筑属性相同条件下，消防力量扑救、地下供水管网等节点变量取值不同时，地震次生火灾的发生、失控以及蔓延的后验概率。推理结果表明，扑救行动的及时与有效性对地震火灾灾害的发生概率影响显著，灾害现场的环境风速、建筑物间的防火距离等因素对火灾蔓延概率有着较大的影响。 【关键词】地震；燃气泄漏；次生火灾；贝叶斯网络；推理 Study on Inference Model of Seismic Secondary Fire Based on Bayesian Networks YAN Jun (China Institute of Industrial Relations，Department of Safety Engineering，Beijing，100048，China) Abstract: In order to research the evolutionary path of seismic secondary fire induced by combustible gas leak in building, Bayesian networks was built to character the dependent relationship between the intermediate cause events in development stages of urban earthquake gas leak induced fire by analyzing earthquake fire spread process and the status of node variables and their ranges were determined. By analyzing earthquake records and expert empirical judgments conclusions, the conditional probability of node variables in Bayesian network structure were given. posterior probabilities were compared in stages of earthquake secondary fire occurrence, spread and out of control based on the same conditions of seismic characteristics and architectural attributes, but node variable values of fire fighting, rescue, and water supply network damage degree were different. Inference results showed, the timeliness and effectiveness of firefighting actions have significantly affections on fire occurrence probability, and ambient wind speed and the distance between buildings have great impact on the probability of fire spread. Key words: earthquake; combustible gas leak; secondary fire; Bayesian network; inference 0 引言 建筑物燃气管道受损泄漏而引发的次生火灾是震后主要次生灾害之一[1]。破坏性地震灾害