春季南印度洋海温异常对东亚夏季气候影响的数值模拟.pptVIP

* * * * * 春季印度洋海温异常及持续对夏季亚洲季风区气候影响的数值模拟 李振宁 指导老师： 杨崧 教授 2014.5.25 – 毕业论文答辩 OUTLINE Background Data Methods Results Conclusions * MAM ENSO signal is weak (Kelvin 1997) IO Basin SST MAX in the annual cycle (Lau Yang 1997) MAM IO SSTA ? JJA Asian Climate? SEIO SSTA during the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO ? TIOD / El Ni?o (Terray et al. 2005) SIO SST ~ ASM more closely than NIO SST (Yoo Yang et al. 2006) ENSO? TIO SSTA (capacitor) ? WNP AC+ ( Xie et al. 2009) MAM different regions’s SSTA of IO ? JJA Asian Climate? * BACKGROUND Motivation: BACKGROUND JJA Asian Climate CAM4 Model EXP NIO SSTA SIO SSTA TIO SSTA * MAM JJA OUTLINE Background Data Methods Results Basic Conclusions * Observational Data: SST ? the Hadley Centre of the U.K. Met Office Atmosphere ? NCEP/DOE Precipitation ? GPCP Model Data: NCAR CAM4 (CCSM atm part) 1.9x2.5 | z = 26 | hybrid sigma p 33 year integrated | skip the first 5 yr Equal to 28 ensemble members AMIP historical Run (Validation) 0.9x1.25 1979-2010 6 ensemble memebers Data Methods * Step 1 试验设计-SSTA强迫的区域与时间 * 编号 区域 ① Basin (E1) ② NIO (E2) ③ SIO (E3) ④ TIO1 (E4) ⑤ TIO2 (E5) 组别 介绍 CTRL 1979-2011 (33yr) Mon Clim SST A (A+) CTRL +/- SSTA Cmp (MAM JJA) B CTRL +/- SSTA Cmp (MAM only) Data Methods * * MAM SST_CMP (Warm - Cold) Step 2 海温异常年份合成 (EOF) JJA SST_CMP (Warm - Cold) R = 0.43 R = 0.55 R = 0.55 R = 0.47 R = 0.41 OUTLINE Background Data Methods Results Conclusions * JJA UV850 Precipitation Rate + bias in SAM - bias in SCS+WNP * A Group MAM Response 同期响应： UV850 Precipit Basin/SIO/TIO1 Gill Pattern Basin southerly anomaly and more rainfall over EA NIO westerly anomaly and more rainfall over SAM Region SIO easterly anomaly and less rain fall over SAM Region TIO1 Very similar as BASIN TIO2 AC+ over SIO 95% confidence level * A Group JJA Response 夏季持续响应： UV850 Precipit Basin Gill Pattern NIO SAM+ NIO ~ SIO opposite in IO region, but similar in WNP TIO1 Very similar as BASIN TIO2 SAM-