限购政策对房价的影响研试题.doc

限购政策对房价的影响研究 ——城市政策分析结课论文 年 级: 专 业: 指导老师: 完成时间: 小组成员: 摘要 房地产调控是当前的社会热点问题,在受到社会各界广泛关注的同时也被大量讨论。尤其在房地产限购令出台后,各种评论、解读更是铺天盖地而来。然而,这些对限购令的讨论主要集中在该政策出台的合法性、对该政策出台后市场走势的描述和该政策对市场影响的基本判断等三方面上,缺少利用科学的方法论进行严谨规范的推理和讨论,因此在理论贡献和实践指导上均有不足。 为了弥补以上不足,本研究应运而生。本文试图在对前人文献进行梳理后,通过横向比较（对北京、天津两个城市实施限购政策前后的效果比较）和纵向比较（实施限购令的城市之间的效果比较），检验实施后的政策效果,以期解决限购令出台的理论基础、政策实施的传导过程以及实施后出现的经济后果等理论问题。 通过理论分析和对比研究,本文得出限购令对于房地产行业的影响效果，基于这样的研究提出对于房地产市场发展的几点建议。一是推进税制改革，减少地方政府土地财政依赖。二是完善房地产信息披露机制，加强住房市场信息收集工作。三是合理引导预期，保持房地产政策目标的一致和连贯性。四是“发展互联网+”：从营销、交易到物业服务，互联网与房地产的结合将更深更广。 关键词：限购令； 房地产价格； 影响机理； 回归方程； 发展前景 Abstract： The regulation of real estate is a social focus nowadays, which has attracted extensive concern and been widely discussed. What’s more, the introduction of house purchase restriction has brought overwhelming comments and interpretations. However, those discussions are mainly concentrated on three aspects： the legitimacy of the policy, the description of market trend after the introduction of the restriction as well as the judgment of the policy’s influence on market, lack of rigorous reasoning with scientific method. So, the current researches have their own deficiencies in both theoretical contributions and practical guidance. This paper is aimed at making up the above weaknesses. To solve the problems about the policy’s theoretical basis, the transmission channel through which the policy implements and the economic consequence, this paper empirically tests the policy effects by horizontal comparison (comparing the different effects before and after the implementation of the house purchase restriction in Beijing and Shanghai) and vertical comparison (comparing the different effects among cities which have adopted the restriction), based on a summary of previous literature. Finally this