宁夏中卫市50年气候变暖对农业的影响.docVIP

中卫市气候变暖对农业的影响 毛万忠1，陈虹1，樊宽1，丁仲录2 ,杨苑1,吴科1 （1.宁夏中卫市气象局，宁夏中卫 755000；2.宁夏气象局，宁夏银川750001 ） 摘要：利用宁夏中卫市辖区四站1961-2010年的日平均气温资料,运用统计学方法计算该地区≥0℃、≥10℃积温和＜0℃负积温，深入研究中卫市热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明：1995～2010年与1961～1994年各月平均气温的差值明显增高，尤其最低气温增温幅度最大，这说明最低气温的变化比最高气温的变化更敏感，中卫市气候变暖主要来自最低气温的贡献。冬季升温幅度大于夏季，＜0℃负积温明显减少。中卫市20世纪90年代中后期明显变暖，热量资源增加，喜温作物种植面积扩大，越冬作物种植区北界向北扩展，有利于牲畜安全越冬。中卫市气候变暖对农业的负面影响大于正面影响。 关键词：中卫市；气候变暖；农业影响 The impacts of climate warming on agriculture In ZhongWei Mao Wanzhong 1,Chen Hong 1, Fan Kuan 1, Ding Zhonglu 2, Yang Yuan1,Wu Ke1 (1. zhongwei meteorological bureau , ningxia zhongwei 755000; 2. ningxia meteorological bureau , ningxia yinchuan 750001) Abstract: based on the average daily temperature data of four cal stations from 1961 to 2010 in zhongwe,ningxia，the accumulated temperature with ≥0℃, ≥ 10℃ and ＜ 0℃ was analyzed by using statistical methods . And heat resources responses to climate change in zhongwei and its impact on agricultural production was also deeply studied. The results showed that the difference of monthly mean temperature in 1995 - 2010 and 1961-1994 in zhongwei significantly increased, especially the warming amplitude of the minimum temperature was higher, suggesting that the change of minimum temperature was more sensitive than that of the maximum temperature . The minimum temperature made a main contribution to the climate warming in zhongwei. the warming amplitude in winter than that in summer, negative accumulated temperature with ＜0℃ decreased significantly. It became warming obviously in the mid-late 20th century in zhongwei , thermophilic crops planting area is expanding, the north border of wintering crop-growing regions extended to the north, in favor of livestock going through winter safely. the negative impact of climate warming on agriculture was larger than the positive effects. Key words: zhongwei; climate warming; influence on agriculture 气候作为人类赖以生存的自然环境的重要组成部分，它的任何变化都会对自然生态系统以及社会经济系统产生深远的影响[1]。近百年来，以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候与环境发生了重大变化，全球