基于系统动力学的废旧家电拆解效益仿真研究.docVIP

基于系统动力学的废旧家电拆解效益仿真研究 陈兰芳，吴 刚，张仪彬2，付 焯2 （1.西南交通大学峨眉校区，峨眉山，614203；2.西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，成都，610031） 摘要：中国从2012年开始实施废旧家电（WEEE）拆解补贴政策，并在2015年大幅修订后于2016年执行新的补贴方案。WEEE拆解补贴政策的核心是拆解效益，它是拆解企业关注的焦点和生产经营决策的目标，也是政府制定拆解补贴政政策的重要依据。论文建立了包括6个子系统的WEEE拆解效益系统动力学模型，并以A拆解企业为例，对经济增长变化、政府策略变化、市场环境变化、拆解企业管理效率变化和拆解企业回收策略变化5种情景进行实证仿真分析。根据仿真结果，针对拆解效益可能面临的经济波动、政府拆解企业数量管制策略变化、政府补贴策略变化以及市场供需环境变化方面的风险，提出相应的应对策略。 关键词：逆向供应链；废旧家电；拆解企业；拆解效益；系统动力学模型 中图分类号：F205 文献标识码：A Research on the Simulation for the Benefit of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment dismantling Based on system dynamics CHEN Lan-fang1,WU Gang2, ZHANG Yi-bin2,FU Zhuo2 (1.Emei Campus, Southwest Jiaotong University, Emeishan 614203, China;2.School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China) Abstract：From 2012, China began to implement the subsidies for the dismantling of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment(WEEE)and substantially the new subsidy program was implemented after it had being revised in 2015. The Core of the subsidy for WEEE dismantling is the dismantling benefit which is also the focus of the dismantling enterprise as well as the important basis for government to make subsidy policy. This study established the system dynamics model for WEEE dismantling benefit including six sub-systems. Then the dismantling enterprise A was taken as an example to make empirical simulation analysis of the five kinds of scenarios such as the economic growth changes, the government strategies changes, the market conditions changes, the management efficiency changes and the recovery strategies changes of the dismantling enterprise. According to the simulation results, focusing on the risks such as the economic fluctuations of the dismantling benefit the dismantling enterprise could face, the changes of the government regulation number of the dismantling enterprise, the changes of the government subsidy strategies and the changes in the market supply and demand environment, the correspond