Expanding Access to Finance Egypt World Bank扩大获得资助埃及世界银行.pptxVIP

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Expanding Access to Finance Egypt World Bank扩大获得资助埃及世界银行.pptx

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Evaluating a Microfinance Expansion in Egypt David Mckenzie Intervention Snapshot The World Bank is providing a financial intermediary loan of $300 million to the government of Egypt to foster micro and small enterprise growth. As part of this financial access initiative, the Social Fund for Development (SFD), Egypt’s apex organization, has established an initiative with the Egyptian Postal Authority to broaden access to finance through the already established postal network. SFD will on-lend to microfinance organizations who are interested in expanding in new villages through the local post office infrastructure Village Entrance Impact evaluation key challenges Intervention is at village level, not individual level (introduce microfinance to particular villages) Take-up for microfinance can often be low. Many of the key outcomes are quite variable (e.g. business profits) All three things reduce power/increase the sample size the study needs to detect an effect. Example illustration Consider trying to measure increase in profit from 300 to 400 per month (33% increase), with s.d. = 300, one baseline and one follow-up, with rho = 0.5. 100% take-up, individual level randomization: Need 142 firms treated, 142 control. 10% take-up – individual level randomization Need 14186 T, 14186 control. 100% take-up, village-level randomization, with 50 firms surveyed per village Need 838 T, 838 control with intra-village corr = 0.10. 10% take-up, village level randomization, with 50 firms surveyed per village Need T= 83,638, C = 83,638 if intra-village corr = 0.10. Solutions? Village-level randomization Have to live with this, can’t randomize at individual firm level, and are interested in measuring some village-level outcomes Low take-up Conduct screening survey to oversample firms most likely to borrow Will also do encouragement of these firms, by making sure they have all information and knowledge needed to apply for loans Variability in key outcomes Measure multiple times to a