paper-new【DOC精选】.doc

好的标题 Summary To study the marine debris problem, we abstract the ocean system as a simplified input-output system. The input of the Ocean System is debris, and the output is impacts. The Hawaiian monk seal is taken as an example to study the potential impacts of the marine debris on the ocean ecosystem. Along with the increase of derelict fishing gear and other marine debris, the annul number of Hawaiian monk seal entanglements has an increasing trend with fluctuation. This increasing trend is divided into certain growth trend and smooth random change trend. Grey model GM (1, 1) and time series analysis method are used to predict the certain growth trend and the smooth random change trend respectively. Then combine the two trends to generate the predictive value. Based on error analysis, the predictive data is highly similar with actual data during the period 1985-1999. This paper comes to some conclusions: the number of entangled Hawaiian monk seal will increase in short-term; in terms of long period, the Hawaiian monk seal will probably vanish in the near future, the food chain will be destroyed, which may leads to ecosystem disorder. To study the annul situation of ocean system, we establish an ocean system evaluation model. Quantitative debris and impacts data of the ocean system are obtained based on analytical hierarchy process (AHP). This paper puts forward an evaluation vector, which consists of the two components--Debris and Impacts, to evaluate the situation of ocean system. A comparison function is constructed to compare the situation of ocean system during different period on the basis of evaluation vector. The results indicate that the amount of debris increases and the situation of ocean system gets worse along with the time passing. Contract between the predictive impacts and the actual impacts indicates artificial recycling action will bring the positive effect on improving the situation. In the last, we submit a research report to the expedition lea