中国地区经济增长收敛性分位数回归分析.docVIP

中国地区经济增长收敛性分位数回归分析 Quantile Regression Analysis to Regional Economic Growth and Convergence in China 内容摘要：本文运用分位数回归方法，对改革开放以来我国省际间的经济增长收敛性行实证分析。首先介绍了分位数回归方法的原理和经济增长收敛的相关理论，接着通过研究省际间人均国内生产总值的变异系数，对经济增长做-收敛分析，把改革开放30年分为3个阶段。然后分别运用最小二乘估计和分位数回归对三个阶段做绝对β-收敛的对比分析，同时也突出了分位数回归的优越性。在此基础上进一步对省际间在三个阶段内条件β-收敛的情况做了深入研究。实证结果表明各省区在第一阶段内普遍存在着绝对收敛和条件收敛的情况，在第二阶段不存在收敛的趋势，第三阶段则表现着较弱的收敛趋势。本文最后指出了研究中的不足，并提出了未来的改进方向。 关键词：分位数回归；经济增长收敛；-收敛；β-收敛 Abstract：This paper quantile regression method to empirically analyze China’s inter-provincial differences in economic growth based on the theory of the convergence of econom -ic growth since reform and opening up. First,we introduce the definition of convergence of economic growth and the theory and advantage of quantile regression method,and then we present the theoretical model of economic growth.Then we do - convergence analysis to economic growth by studying the coefficient of variation of the inter-provincial gross domestic product per capita,and we divide 30 years of reform and opening up into three stages. Furthermore, we do - convergence comparative analysis to the three stages through the least square estimation and quantile regression separately.And this can also highlight the excellence of quantile regression. Based on this,we do in-depth study to - convergence of the various income levels of different provinces and regions in the three satges. Empirical results show that the total provinces and regions generally have absolute convergence and conditional convergence in the first stage,and there is no trend of convergence in the second stage,as well as a weak trend of convergence in the third stage. Finally,we have pointed out the shortages in this reserch,and we have indicated the direction of future improvement. Key words：quantile regression; the convergence of economic growth; - convergence; - convergence 一．引言 自索洛(Solow,1956)建立起新古典长期经济增长模型后的相当长时期内 ,大批经济学家都在其模型的基础上研究蕴涵其中的经济增长收敛性特征。与理论上对收敛性进行研究相比 ,收敛性的实证研究只是从 20 世纪 80 年代中后期才开始的