人民币汇率分析报告.doc

人民币汇率分析报告 一、摘要 China Foreign Exchange Trade Center from the latest data show that, following a breakthrough the day before yesterday rose 99 basis points 6.32 mark yesterday after the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar jumped 33 basis points reported 6.3165, since the reform on two consecutive days to refresh the record. Last night the European Central Bank announced a surprise rate cut by 25 basis points, plus the Greek or abandon a referendum on the EUs rescue plan, the formation of European and American stock markets positive. In this context, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar continued upward trend, a new high. It is noteworthy that, from September, the RMB between domestic and foreign markets show different trends, although the yuan central parity, opening days, but Hong Kongs offshore RMB (CNH) and overseas non-deliverable forward market (NDF) occur across the board devaluation. The spread between the exchange rate also led to the recent wave of arbitrage on the market. In the second half of 2008 the world experienced economic and financial crisis and the dramatic impact of the rapid rebound in 2009 after the 2010 world economy recovers. 2009, Chinas rapid economic growth is slowing after recovery, pre-stimulate the economy put a lot of liquidity on the pressure for inflation to gradually appear, Peoples Bank of China announced in June 2010, again to restart the reform on the RMB exchange rate in 2008 pegged to the dollar when the financial crisis intensified with decoupling again two years later, in a series of events under the influence, 2011 to RMB effective exchange rate movements. Based on this, now report an analysis of the RMB exchange rate. 二、关键词 fluctuations in exchange、 Sticky-Price Monetary Approach macroeconomic policy、 ? floating rate 三、正文 1、定价机制：近期的一系列市场动荡显示，为了协助人民币进一步走向国际化，中国货币当局或许需要考虑进一步提升人民币汇率定价机制的透明度。一个不太透明的定价机制，将给市场造成频繁波动，而且有可能使得企业或是资产管理公司进行风险对冲的成本上升，最终也会影响到进出口商和离岸市场人民币的使用效率。这对于逐渐走向国际化的人民币来说，并非益事。很多人可能不理解，