基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元模型在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用.docVIP

基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元模型在水资源脆弱性评价中的应用 　　摘要：运用基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元理论，从效益水平、水资源量、生态环境三方面构建了乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价指标体系和等级标准，并利用模糊物元评价模型定量评价了乌鲁木齐市长系列水资源脆弱性的动态变化情况。通过与灰关联分析法、模糊综合评价结果的比较，证明模糊物元模型适用于乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性评价。评价结果显示，从2005年-2011年乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性等级有增长趋势，到规划年2015年和2020年水资源脆弱性等级将达到Ⅴ级状态，未来乌鲁木齐市水资源脆弱性增强不容忽视。 　　关键词：模糊物元；水资源；脆弱性；欧式贴近度；熵权法；乌鲁木齐市；综合评价 　　中图分类号：TV213.4 文献标志码：A 文章编号2015 　　Application of fuzzy matter element model based on Euclid approach degree on 　　vulnerability assessment of water resources 　　MA Dongmei1，2，CHEN Dachun1 　　（1.College of Water Hydraulic and Civil Engineering，Xinjiang Agricultural University，Urumqi 830052，China； 　　2.Bazhou Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute，Korla 841000，China） 　　Abstract：The water resources vulnerability evaluation index system and grade standard in Urumqi were developed using the fuzzy matter element theory based on Euclid approach degree from three aspects of benefit level，water resources quantity，and ecological environment，and the dynamic variation of longseries water resources vulnerability in Urumqi was evaluated quantitatively using the fuzzy matter element evaluation model.The evaluation results were compared with those obtained from the grey correlation analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation，the fuzzy matter element model was proved to be suitable for the assessment of water resources vulnerability in Urumqi.The evaluation results showed that the vulnerability level of water resources in Urumqi increases from 2005 to 2011，and will reach grade Ⅴ in 2015 and 2020.Therefore，water resources in Urumqi become more vulnerable in future. 　　Key words：fuzzy matter element；water resources；vulnerability；Euclid approach degree；entropy method；Urumqi；comprehensive evaluation 　　1 研究区概况 　　乌鲁木齐市位于天山中段北麓、准噶尔盆地南缘，属于中温带半干旱大陆气候区，年降水量287 mm，年平均气温73 ℃。近些年，乌鲁木齐市经济发展迅速，水资源缺乏已经成为制约经济发展的因素之一。2011年乌鲁木齐市地表水资源量1077亿 m3，地下水资源量为467亿m3，扣除两者之间转化的重复量，水资源总量为1118亿m3，人均水资源为340 m3，不足全国人均水资源量的1/4和全疆水资源的量的1/10。根据第六次人口普查，乌鲁木齐市的常住人口已经超