索罗模型下的产业结构分析框架——对我国及部分省区产业结构的....docVIP

索罗模型下的产业结构分析框架——对我国及部分省区产业结构的... 索罗模型下的产业结构分析框架——对我国及部分省区产业结构的实证分析 摘要：根据新古典增长理论，存在一个稳态黄金储蓄率，在这一储蓄率下，社会消费（生活水平）达到最大化。其条件为“去除折旧的有效率人均资本存量的边际产量等于经济增长率”。黄金储蓄率的实现与否，可以作为产业结构分析的理论依据。即：资本去除折旧的净边际产量若大于经济增长率，说明产业结构中，用于生产资料生产的产业布局（投资）及出口加工业的产业布局过少。用这样的分析框架对我国总体及东、中、西部地区的产业结构的分析显示，全国的产业结构中生产资料的生产比例总体不足，资本报酬占其总产值的比例在全国地区间差异较大，北京由于2008奥运已使生产资料生产产业布局过高。 关键词：索罗模型 新古典分配理论 产业结构 an analytical framework on industrial structure under solow model —positive analysis of china abstract: according to neo-classical economic growth theory, there is a golden rule steady state of saving rate under which the consumption may be maximized, and so were the living standard. this golden rule steady state of saving rate is the case that marginal products of capital stock per effective worker net of depreciation equals the growth rate of the economy. by the definition of saving rate, and the neo-classical growth theory, that whether the golden rule steady state of saving rate is currently achieved or not might be applied to be the framework of analyzing the structure of industry. that is, if the marginal product of capital stock per effective worker net of depreciation is greater than the growth rate of the economy, then the saving rate, which is composed of capital good production and net export (net foreign investment), would be much less than the optimal structure. with this principle, i examined the industrial structure of china and its different regions. the conclusions are that, china as a whole, the proportion of capital good production industry is less than the optimal structure, and that the proportion of the returns of capital in china varies regionally. beijing’s capital good production industry is the exception, largely due to the 2008 olympic game. key words: solow model, neo-classical distribution, industrial structure 将索罗模型（solow model）用于产业结构的分析中，文献中少见报道，本文试图通过对索罗模型的分析，提出一个产业结构分析的框架，并对我国总体及东、中、西部地区产业结构进行分析。 一、新古典经济增长理论回顾 索罗（solow）的新古典经济增长理论认为，经济增长由有效率