公元11世纪后的气候变冷对宋以后经济发展的动态影响探讨.doc

【内容提要】文章从公元11世纪后我国气候的显著变冷入手，讨论了在此基础上发生的农业生产、土壤、植被的显著恶化，游牧民族与汉族力量对比的适应性变化，中国人口和经济重心的适应性南移，以及在此基础上对中国传统政府统治模式所造成的巨大挑战。作者认为，理解这一气候变化及其经济动态影响，乃是理解11世纪后两宋时期经济发展和政府治理出现新气象的重要理论前提和基础。文章同时概括古今气候变化的影响机制与应对举措，并指出本文研究对当代气候变暖的现实意义所在。 　　【关键词】11世纪后气候变冷 人口和经济重心转移 传统政府统治模式 今日气候变暖 　　【Title】China’s Climate Change Towards Colder since the 11th Century and Its Dynamic Effects on Economic Development since the Song onward 　　【Abstract】This paper discusses firstly the prominent climate change towards colder in terms of average temperature, secondly, the deterioration of soil quality, vegetation, the change of river course, agricultural and cash crop output fluctuation, and the comparatively adaptive strength change between the nomads and Chinese afterwards, and thirdly the corresponding shift of Chinese population and economic gravity towards south China. Fourth, it analyzes the economic and political impact of these changes on the Chinese traditional governance pattern. We argue that understanding this prominent climate change and its dynamically economic effects followed is fundamental to understand Song抯 economic development and governance innovation since the 11th century as well as the reason why Song falls as a result. Finally, a comparison between this historical scenario and the current climate warming is conducted with an aim of drawing some governance lessons from these historical facts, and certainly some policy implications are presented in the end. 　　【Key Words】China’s Climate Change since the 11th Century, Chinese Traditional Governance Pattern, the Shift of Chinese Population and Economic Gravity, the Dynamic Effects on Economic Development 一、引言 　　在对中国经济与传统治理模式的长视角考察中，两宋时期无疑是一个让历史学家、经济史学家感到惊讶和困惑的时期。历史学家黄仁宇在《中国大历史》一书中写道：“公元960年宋代兴起，中国好像进入了现代……行政之重点从抽象原则到脚踏实地，从重农政策到留意商业，从一种被动的形势到争取主动，如是给赵宋王朝产生了一种新观感”[1]。陈寅恪也认为，“华夏民族之文化，历数千载之演进，造极于赵宋之世”[2]。不仅如此，国外学者也持大体类似的观点。美国历史学家罗兹·墨菲称，“从很多方面来看，宋朝算得上一个政治清明、繁荣和创新的黄金时代”[3]。日本历史学家官崎市定在《东洋近代史》中写道，“宋代（简直）是十足的东方文艺复兴时代”[4]。著名的经济史学家安格斯·麦迪森在长时期核算各国的