Novelty And Surprises In Complex Adaptive SystemCAS复杂适应系统中的新奇与惊喜.pptVIP

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Novelty And Surprises In Complex Adaptive SystemCAS复杂适应系统中的新奇与惊喜.ppt

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Novelty And Surprises In Complex Adaptive SystemCAS复杂适应系统中的新奇与惊喜

AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS:APPLICATIONS TO ECONOMIC MODELLING, MARKET AND POLICY DESIGN Lecture 1 Slides Sheri M. Markose Economics Department and Centre For Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA) University of Essex, UK. scher@essex.ac.uk Talk Prepared for Prime Minister Strategy Unit: 28 Sept. 2005?? Road Map of Talk Where has ACE come from ? Essex Centre CCFEA’s pioneering role What are its foundations ? What sort of applications has ACE resulted in ACE models at CCFEA: The Artificial Stock Market model and Herding; Interbank Large Value Payments : Project with Bank of England; Endogenous Risk : Collapse of Currency Peg – Black Wednesday; Cap and Trade -Design of Smart Market for Congestion : Foresight Project Demos Calibration and Real Time Analysis : Future Challenges Concluding remarks AGENT BASED COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS (ACE) : A NEW,EXCITING SUB-FIELD OF ECONOMICS THIS IS BASED ON THE NEW AGE WORLD OF ARTIFICIAL ENVIRONMENTS WITHIN COMPUTERS ENTIRE SYSTEMS CAN BE RECREATED AND CAN THEN DYNAMICALLY EVOLVE AND GROW : SOMETIMES CALLED ARTIFICIAL LIFE THESE ENVIRONMENTS MAY HAVE PURELY ARITIFICIAL AGENTS AND/OR CAN HAVE INTERFACES WITH HUMANS EXAMPLES OF THIS AT A HIGH LEVEL OF SOPHISTICATION ARE COMPUTER GAMES E-bay and use of ‘BOTs’ in Search Engines for lowest price THIS NEW TECHNOLOGY IS INCREASINGLY BEING ADOPTED FOR ECONOMIC MODELLING, MARKET AND POLICY DESIGN CCFEA: CENTRE AT ESSEX FIRST IN UK TO DEVELOP POSTGRADUATE CURRICULA IN ACE THE CORE MODULE IN CCFEA MSc in Computational Agent Based Networks and E-Markets For Which we are gaining recognition is CF902 :Computational Models of Agent Networks, Markets and Self-Organization This June 13-15 2005 , CCFEA hosted the 10 Anniversary of WEHIA, the pre-eminent Interacting Economic Agents Conference http://www.essex.ac.uk/wehia05/ Economists in the UK have been somewhat under the cosh with bureaucracy dictating what is ‘good’ science . The RAE has effectively prevente