The Intrinsic Estimator for Ageperiodcohort Analysis What年龄阶段队列分析的内在估计.pptVIP

* * If there is level-two heterogeneity, then the assumption of fixed period and cohort effects ignores this heterogeneity and may not be adequate. * * * HAPC models provide a framework for analysis of repeated cross-sectional data and can be extended to take into account a number of problems. And we will focus on three extensions here. * * * In APC analyses of finite time period social survey data, the numbers of periods and birth cohorts usually are too small to satisfy the large sample criteria required by the maximum likelihood estimation of variance components. In addition, the sample sizes within each cohort are highly unbalanced. Therefore, errors in variance components estimates may produce extra uncertainty in fixed effects coefficient estimates that will not be reflected in the standard errors. * * Many studies such as those in life course and aging involve panel designs that follow multiple cohorts over time, as shown by the diagram. The example shown here follows 4 cohorts for 4 time points, the columns represent their ages at each measurement. * A useful tool for longitudinal analysis of individual change is the growth curve models, which is an application of hierarchical models. It is challenging to estimate a separate period effect in such design because data were usually collected in a comparatively short time. And in growth trajectory models, age and time are the same variable. * * The goal of the analysis is to estimate the overall age trajectory of development of depressive symptoms and multiple trajectories for cohorts. In the Level 1 Repeated Observations Model, each person’s growth trajectory in CES-D score, Y, is a function of a set of time-varying covariates that include age and X, all continuous variables are centered. Of central interest are two individual growth parameters: The intercept pi_oi and the rate of increase Pi_1i. E_ti is the random within-person error for person i at t and is assumed normally distributed with means of 0 an