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Effect of climate change on fish distribution and dynamics in the North Atlantic.ppt
Keith Brander ESSAS Symposium May 2005 Effect of climate change on fish distribution and dynamics in the North Atlantic Keith Brander ICES/GLOBEC Coordinator Structure of the talk What can we say with confidence about changes in distribution Consequences of change in MOC Changes in recruitment and growth of cod under climate change and management implications Much of the North Atlantic, including Greenland was warm during the period from 1925 to the late 1940’s Changes in the distribution and abundance of fish species off West Greenland during the period of warming from 1920 onwards. Prepared by Brander (2003) based on Saemundsson (1937) and Jensen (1939). Changes in fish distribution and abundance of fish species off Iceland during the period of warming from 1920 onwards. Prepared by Brander (2003) based on Saemundsson (1937) and Jensen (1939). Conclusion For fish species and for plankton our historic records give us well-established basis for predicting the distributional consequences of warming – also rates [0.05oC?y-1 ~ 10km?y-1 ~ 30m?d-1] …but what about consequences of climate change for reproduction, growth and productivity? …a simple story about warming and distribution shifts is incomplete Atlantic inflow into Norwegian Sea Consider: 1 position of polar front; 2 mixing and MOC It transports heat and biota It is part of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) (and of THC) It generates high production difference in stratification and nutrient supply N and S of Polar Front) Table 1 and Fig 11 of GLOBEC Report 20 show 2-fold difference Average primary productivity in spring north of Iceland (borrowed from Olafur Astthorsson) Effects of reduced Atlantic inflow: “.. in the Norwegian Sea the Polar Front, which separates Atlantic and arctic waters, typically lies a few hundred km north of the Faroe Islands and reduced inflow would be likely to move the front closer to or even onto the Faroe Shelf. If such a shift takes place a cooling of the order
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