中国财政支出结构优化与经济增长关系的实证分析.pdfVIP

第5卷 第3期 大连海事大学学报(社会科学版) Vo1．5，No．3 2006年9月 Journal of Dalian Maritime University(Social Sciences Edition) Sep．，2006 中国财政支出结构优化与经济增长关系的实证分析 国 涓 ，陈蜀豫 (1．东北财经大学数量经济系，辽宁 大连 116025； 2．大连理工大学 管理学院，辽宁 大连 116024) 摘要：运用中国1978—2004年的年度数据，建立一个多变量协整与误差修正模型，对中国财政支出结构与经 济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证分析，实证结果表明中国生产性财政支出、非生产性支出与经济增长之间存 在长期的均衡稳定关系，并在此基础上为财政支出的调整提供一些政策依据。 关键词：中国；财政支出；结构优化；协整检验；误差修正模型 中图分类号：F224 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1671—7031(2006)03．0069—04 Empirical analysis on the relationship between fiscal expenditure structure optimization and the economy growth GUO Juan 一，CHEN Shu—yu (1．Department of Quantitative Economy，Dongbei Univ．of FinanceEconomy，Dalian 1 16025，China； 2．Department of Management，Dalian Univ．of Technology，Dalian1 16024，China) Abstract：Considering the eleventh five．year plan，fiscal expenditures must be made some corresponding ad— j ustments on the direction and the quantity to coordinate the relevant measures．Using the year—data from 1978 tO 2004 tO establish a multivariable CO·integration and error correction model，the short—term and long— term relationships between economic growth and composition of fiscal expenditure were analyzed in this pa— per．The results indicated that there was an equilibrium and stable relationship among the productive expen— diture，unproductive expenditure and economic growth．In the long run，non—productive expenditure had a significant positive impact on economic growth．Then，on the basis of the results，some policy foundations were suggested for the adj ustments of fiscal expenditures． Key words：China；fiscal expenditure；the structure optimization；CO—integration test；error correction model 物质基础，也是政府进行资源配置、实施宏观调