Fuel_2009_Forecasting coal production until 2100.pdf

Fuel xxx (2009) xxx–xxx ARTICLE IN PRESSContents lists available at ScienceDirect Fuel journal homepage: www.elsevier .com/locate / fuelForecasting coal production until 2100 S.H. Mohr *, G.M. Evans University of Newcastle, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, Chemical Engineering, University Drive, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australiaa r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 23 November 2008 Received in revised form 24 January 2009 Accepted 28 January 2009 Available online xxxx Keywords: Coal reserves Peak coal Coal production0016-2361/$ - see front matter  2009 Elsevier Ltd. A doi:10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032 * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: steve.mohr@studentmail.newcas frey.Evans@.au (G.M. Evans). Please cite this article in press as: Mohr SHa b s t r a c t Amodel capable of projecting mineral resources production has been developed. The model includes sup- ply and demand interactions, and has been applied to all coal producing countries. A model of worldwide coal production has been developed for three scenarios. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) esti- mates used in the scenarios ranged from 700 Gt to 1243 Gt. The model indicates that worldwide coal pro- duction will peak between 2010 and 2048 on a mass basis and between 2011 and 2047 on an energy basis. The Best Guess scenario, assumed a URR of 1144 Gt and peaks in 2034 on a mass basis, and in 2026 on an energy basis.  2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.11. Introduction Coal is widely used in the generation of electricity and in the production of steel, and is considered to be an abundant resource. In 2006 World production of all coal types was 6.2 Gt/y and the current reserves to production ratio (R/P) is 133 years [1]. There have been a few estimates of future coal production and all [2–4] have used Hubbert’s bell curve tech- nique. Hubbert [2] in 1976 estimated future coal production by applying a bell shaped curve to global production, and predicted it would peak at between 1