石油钻井工程项目风险.docVIP

中国石油大学（华东）本科毕业设计(论文) 国际石油钻井工程项目风险分析与管理探析 学生姓名： 学 号： 专业班级： 指导教师： 2012年6月08日 摘要 石油钻井工程是勘探与开采石油及天然气资源的重要环节。石油钻井工程是一个涉及部门多、环节多、规模大、技术复杂、投资多和风险大的系统工程。这些特点决定在油气钻井工程的每一个环节都存在着巨大的风险。因此，进行油气钻井工程项目的风险管理研究，对于我国石油钻探企业具有重要的现实意义。 本文以油气钻井工程项目的风险管理为研究对象，借鉴前人的研究成果，以风险管理、工程项目管理、油气钻探与开发等相关基本理论为基础，通过分析油气钻井工程系统及其特点以及运行过程中可能遇到的风险，研究了其常见风险的识别与评估；并从自然风险、技术风险、管理风险和经济风险等角度，采用模糊—层次分析法构建了油气钻井工程项目风险评价模型；最后，从工程项目风险管理的角度对油气钻井工程风险的管理措施进行了研究。 关键：钻井工程；风险管理；AHP；模糊理论；模糊综合评价 Abstract The petroleum drilling Project is vital procedure in the process of the exploration and production of the Petroleum and natural gas resources，Oil drilling engineering project is a systematic engineering that involves many departments， many links， large scales， complicated techniques， lots of investments and large risk. The characteristics determine that each link in the oil drilling operation has huge risk in oil drilling project. Therefore， it is of important realistic and leading significance for the drilling operations in China to research on the risks management in the oil drilling project. The thesis studies on risk management of oi1 drilling project. It refers to forefathers’ achievements. And on the basis of basic theories of risk management ， the project management and oil exploration and development ， by analyzing the project system and its characteristics， and the risk confronting in the operation of oil drilling project， the thesis researches the identification and valuation of common risk， and sets up the models from the natural risk， technical risk， manage mental risk and economic risk etc. of which one model uses analytic fuzzy hierarchy process to assess the risk of oil drilling operation. Finally， study the measures on risk management from the view of risk management of engineering project. Keyword: drilling project; risk management; AHP; fuzzy theory; fuzzy assessment method 目录  TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u  HYPERLINK \l _Toc326394618 第一章 前言  PAGEREF _Toc326394618 \h