煤炭价格的模糊线性回归预测模型.docxVIP

煤炭价格的模糊线性回归预测模型 摘要 我国是煤炭生产和消费大国，煤炭作为重要的战略资源，对于我国经济的发展有着举足轻重的作用。而且在未来相当长的时期内，煤炭依然会是我国最重要的能源，我国能源格局仍将以煤炭为主导。煤炭价格形成机制问题，制约着煤炭工业的健康发展，同时也制约着我国经济的发展。因此，探索建立符合市场经济发展要求的煤炭价格形成机制，不仅直接影响煤炭产业结构合理化程度和煤炭工业的可持续发展，而且还关系到国民经济能否健康地发展。 煤炭价格形成机制不完善等问题。其次着重对煤炭价格影响因素进行研究，深入探讨了煤炭的供求关系与全成本对煤炭价格的影响，在此基础上采用系统动力学方法，构建煤炭价格形成模型，借助模糊线性回归预测模型进行反复优化，并对煤炭库存量、消费量及价格等进行模拟和预测。最后综合文中的定性与定量分析结果，对我国煤炭价格形成机制的改革提出具有可操作性的相关政策建议。 关键词:煤炭价格；模糊线性回归；模型 Abstract China is a big country of coal production and consumption. As an important strategic resource, coal plays an important role in the development of Chinas economy. And in the future for a long period of time, coal will still be the most important energy in China, Chinas energy structure will still be dominated by coal. The formation mechanism of coal price restricts the healthy development of coal industry, but also restricts the development of Chinas economy. Therefore, to explore the establishment to meet the requirements of the coal price formation mechanism of the development of market economy, sustainable development not only directly affect the coal industry structure rationalization degree and the coal industry, but also related to the national economy healthy development. Coal price formation mechanism is not perfect and so on. Then focus on the factors of the impact of coal prices, and discusses the influence of coal supply and demand and the cost of coal price, on the basis of using the system dynamics method, build the coal price formation model, using fuzzy linear regression models for repeated optimization, and the coal inventory, consumption and price are simulated forecast. Finally, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the reform of the coal price formation mechanism in china. Key words: coal price; fuzzy linear regression; model 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \u  HYPERLINK \l _Toc25798 前言  PAGEREF _Toc25798 1  HYPERLINK \l _Toc30266 1模糊线性回归模型  PAGEREF _Toc30266 1  HYPERLINK \l _Toc8934 2我国煤炭价格形成分析  PAGEREF _Toc8934