基于区域回归分析法的浙江省洪水计算分区.pdfVIP

第35卷第4期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2015年7月 Vol.35 No.4 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Jul. 2015 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2015.04.010 基于区域回归分析法的浙江省洪水计算分区 伍远康,陶永格,刘福瑶 (浙江省水文局,浙江 杭州摇 310009) 摘要:以浙江省122 个水文站历年最大洪峰流量与不同时段雨强、流域面积、河长、河床比降为指 标,建立区域回归方程,利用该回归方程计算各水文站历年最大洪峰流量,并与实测值比较,结果表 明计算值与实测值相关关系的分区规律明显,可将浙江省分为两个洪水计算区,计算值大于实测值 的站点相对集中于钱塘江中上游、瓯江中上游、浦阳江、曹娥江等区域,占该区全部站点的69郾5%; 计算值小于实测值的站点相对集中于天目山、会稽山、四明山、天台山、大盘山、括苍山、南北雁荡山 等呈“7冶字形分布区域,占该区全部站点的73%。 该分区结果与浙江省梅雨、台风雨以及土地利 用、植被等分区总体吻合,表明分区结果是合理的,该分区方法具有可行性。 关键词:洪水计算分区;水文分区;最大洪峰流量;区域回归分析;浙江省 中图分类号:TV122摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2015)04 0039 05 FloodzoningcalculationinZhejiangProvincebasedonregionalregressionanalyticalmethod/ / WUYuankang,TAO Yongge,LIU Fuyao(Hydrological Bureau of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou310009,China) Abstract:Taking the annual maximumflood peak flow,rainfall intensity,drainage area,river length,and river slope at different periods of 122 hydrological stations in Zhejiang Province as indicators, the regional regression equation is established. Then,the regression equation is used to calculate the annual maximum flood peak flow at those hydrological stations. Comparing the calculated values with observations,the results show that the relation between them significantly followstheregionalizationrules. Therefore,ZhejiangProvincecanbedividedintotwofloodcalculationzones. Pointswhere the calculated value is bigger than the measuredfocus on the areas such as the middle and upper reaches of the Qiantang River,the middle and upper reaches of the Ou River,thePuyang River,andthe Cao爷e River,andthepointsaccountfor 69郾5% of whole points in thezone;pointswherethecalculatedvalueissmallerthanthemeasuredfocusontheareassuch as the TianmuMoun