短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型_刘燕华.pdfVIP

第 35 卷 第 10 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.35 No.10 May 20, 2015 2015 年 5 月 20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2015 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 2375 DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.10.002 文章编号：0258-8013 (2015) 10-2375-08 中图分类号：TM 743 短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型 刘燕华，李伟花，刘冲，张东英 (华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院，北京市 昌平区 102206) Mixed Skew Distribution Model of Short-term Wind Power Prediction Error LIU Yanhua, LI Weihua, LIU Chong, ZHANG Dongying (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: The wind power prediction uncertainty 0 引言 information should be referred to make decision due to low 近年来，风电装机容量在电力系统中的比例不 prediction precision. The error distributions of different sizes and value intervals present characteristics of biasness, heavy 断提高，风电的强随机性亦给电网调度运行带来严 tail and multi-modality through analyzing an actual operated 峻的挑战。风电预测对电网的安全稳定运行至关重 system’s prediction and operation data. Therefore, the mixed 要，但由于数值气象预报的准确度、时间尺度和分 skew distribution was proposed to model short-term wind 辨率及一些其他因素(如预测方法等)，目前的风电 power prediction error distribution for depicting the features, 预测精度较低，较难满足应用需求[1-2] 。在此背景下， and nonlinear fitting of the statistical probability density curve was used to estimate the model parameters. The case study of a 风电预测误差分析将有助于对风电预测的不确定 regional wind power prediction system data manifests that 性进行更为准确的描述。除了向调度部门提供风电 wind power prediction error distribution characteristics can be 功率的点预测信息外，还能提供预测值的概