超短期风电功率预测误差数值特性分层分析方法_叶林.pdf

36 3 Vol.36 No.3 Feb.5, 2016 692 2016 2 5 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2016 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. DOI 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2016.03.012 0258-8013 (2016) 03-0692-09 TM 85 ( 100083) Stratification Analysis Approach of Numerical Characteristics for Ultra-short-term Wind Power Forecasting Error YE Lin, REN Cheng, ZHAO Yongning, RAO Risheng, TENG Jingzhu (College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China) ABSTRACT: Characteristics analysis of wind power forecasting error can provide more accurate reference for optimal dispatch and stable operation of power system. This paper proposed a numerical error characteristics analyzing approach which stratified the errors into different layers according to the probability density of the ultra-short-term wind power forecasting errors. Then, the errors were processed 0 separately by their fluctuation and amplitude characteristics. An improved generalized error distribution (GED) model was used to fit the error probability density distribution. The proposed analyzing approach combined the advantages of error forecasting model and error probability density fitting methods. It is more accurate to analyze and compensate the ultra-short-term wind power forecasting errors. Results of case [1-3] studies indicate that the improved generalized error distribution performs much better than Normal