如何作价值评估.pdfVIP

An Summary of Valuation Methods 1 Some Initial Thoughts One hundred thousand lemmings cannot be wrong Graffiti We thought we were in the top of the eighth inning, when we in the bottom of the ninth.. Stanley Druckenmiller 2 A philosophical basis for Valuation “Valuation is often not a helpful tool in determining when to sell hypergrowth stocks”, Henry Blodget, Merrill Lynch Equity Research Analyst in January 2000, in a report on Internet Capital Group, which was trading at $174 then. n There have always been investors in financial markets who have argued that market prices are determined by the perceptions (and misperceptions) of buyers and sellers, and not by anything as prosaic as cashflows or earnings. n Perceptions matter, but they cannot be all the matter. n Asset prices cannot be justified by merely using the “bigger fool” theory. Postscript : Internet Capital Group was trading at $ 3 in January 2001. 3 Misconceptions about Valuation n Myth 1: A valuation is an objective search for “true” value • Truth 1.1: All valuations are biased. The only questions are how much and in which direction. • Truth 1.2: The direction and magnitude of the bias in your valuation is directly proportional to who pays you and how much you are paid. n Myth 2.: A good valuation provides a precise estimate of value • Truth 2.1: There are no precise valuations • Truth 2.2: The payoff to valuation is greatest when valuation is least precise. n Myth 3: . The more quantitative a model, the better the valuation • T