济南市月均最高气温的变化趋势分析.doc

毕业论文 题 目 济南市月均最高气温 的变化趋势分析 学 院 专 业 班 级 学 生 学 号 指导教师 二〇一二年月日  本文采用济南市1951--2007年逐月平均最高气温的数据资料，运用5年滑动平均法进行变化趋势拟合，通过线性分析，距平等数学方法分析了济南市近60年来年均、季节和月均最高气温的变化趋势。分析发现，济南市年年均最高气温的变化以1973年为界，在这之前呈波动下降趋势，之后则波动上升。季节变化以冬季平均最高气温的增加最明显，夏季有微弱下降趋势，春、秋季节则表现微弱的增加趋势。近60年来，月均最高气温的变化以1月至3月的增温趋势最明显，其中2月增温速率最快；而5月至8月都呈现一定的降温趋势。1月至12月各月平均最高气温的变化大致以70年代末为界，80年代之前多数月份的平均最高气温都低于多年平均值；80年代至今，多数月份的平均最高气温都高于多年平均值，近30年来增温趋势明显。 ABSTRACT In this paper, we used the monthly highest temperature of Jinan city during 1951 and 2007. We used 5-year?moving average to fit the trends. We also used mathematical methods like linear analysis and anomalies etc. to analyze the trends of Jinans recent 60 years yearly, seasonal and monthly highest temperature. Through analyzing, we found that Jinans yearly average highest temperature changes take 1973 as a border, before this decline is fluctuation, after the wave rise. The increasing of the average winter maximum temperature are most obvious to seasonal variations and the summer have a weak downward trend, while spring and autumn perform the weak increasing trend. The past 60 years, the average monthly maximum temperature warming trend from January to March were the most obvious, especially February was the fastest of warming rate; but May to August showed the downward trend. The late 1970s was regarded as the boundary of the change of the average maximum temperature of each month from January to December. Before the 1980s, the average maximum temperature of most months was lower than the average of many years. Since?the 1980s,?the average maximum?temperature of most months?is higher than the average for many years. The warming trend of?the past 30 years is obvious. Key words：Jinan City;?average?maximum temperature;?moving averagetrends 目 录 摘要 I ABSTRACT II 1 前言 1 1.1研究背景与意义 1 1.2国内外研究现状 1 2 研究区概况 3 3 资