省直管县改革及县级政府财政解困基于6省面板数据的实.PDF

省直管县改革与县级政府财政解困： 基于 6 省面板数据的实证研究∗ 刘 佳 1, 2，马 亮 1, 2，吴建南2 （西安交通大学 1. 管理学院；2. 公共政策与管理学院，陕西 西安 710049 ） 摘要：在全国各地普遍试点并推广的省直管县改革被认为是实现县域经济盘活和县级政府财 政解困的重要手段，但关于该问题的大样本实证证据却尚未发现。基于 6 省 2004-2009 年的 面板数据，采用基于自然实验的倍差法模型估计，本文实证分析了省直管县改革对县级政府 财政自给能力的实际影响。研究发现省直管县改革的财政政策效应明显，显著提高了县级政 府的财政自给率，但其政策效应呈现出边际效益递减的趋势。研究还发现省直管县改革对县 级市、富裕县和规模较大的县的政策效应最明显。本文对上述发现进行了讨论，并据此提出 省直管县改革通过提高财政自给率而对县级政府财政解困产生积极作用，但在稳步推进省直 管县改革的同时需要采取配套措施；省直管县改革在不同规模、经济发展水平和行政单位性 质的县产生的政策效应不尽相同，各地在推行省直管县改革时应因地制宜，结合县域经济和 财力情况，制定适宜的政策并采取合适的策略。 关键词：省直管县；财政自给能力；财政解困；面板数据；倍差法估计 Province-Managing-County Reform and Mitigation of Fiscal Deficiencies of County Governments in China: An Empirical Analysis of Panel Data from Six Provinces Liu Jia1, 2, Ma Liang1, 2, Wu Jian-nan2 (1. School of Management; 2. School of Public Policy and Administration, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian 710049) Abstract: The Province-Managing-County Reform (PMCR) experimented and diffused nationally has been considered to be important means to stimulate local economic development and mitigate fiscal deficiencies of county governments in China. However, there are no evidences to support the arguments so far. Based on panel data from six provinces across 2004 to 2009 in China and utilizing difference-in-difference estimation of a natural experiment, the paper empirically analyze the effects of PMCR on fiscal self-sufficiency capacity of county governments. It is found that PMCR does increase fiscal self-sufficiency ratio of county governments, but its policy effects decrease year after year. We also find that PMCR has relatively larger effects for county-level-cities, richer and larger counties. We discuss the findings above and conclude with policy recommendations and future research directions.