基于DEMATEL复杂多因素烟农收益网络建模探析.docVIP

基于DEMATEL复杂多因素烟农收益网络建模探析 　　摘要：为了从影响烟农收益的复杂模糊的众多因素中分析确定影响烟农收益的主要社会影响因素，运用决策试验与评价实验室法（DEMATEL），从影响烟农收益的各项社会因素之间的相互影响出发，通过构建因素之间的相互关联性建立直接影响矩阵，进而通过运算求得综合影响矩阵、各因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度。通过DEMATEL的数据因素关系，确定影响烟农收益的主要因素为种植面积、田间管理措施、烟农年龄、资金扶持补贴、劳动力数量、劳动力价格等6方面因素。由研究结果对主要影响因素进行分析，为提高烟农收益以及改善“三农”问题提出了建议 关键词：决策试验与评价试验室法（DEMATEL）；社会因素；网络建模 中图分类号：F224 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）21-5638-05 DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.21.052 The Network Modeling Analyses on Tobacco Growers Income of Complex Multiple Factors Based on DEMATEL TAN Fang-li1，LI Sheng-dong2，LU Xiao-chong2，DIAN Rui-li3，LI Hong-guang1，FANG Ming1，WU Wen-xin1 （1.Chenzhou Branch Company of Hunan Provincial Tobacco Company，Chenzhou 423000，Hunan，China； 2.College of Tobacco，Henan Agricultural University，Zhengzhou 450002，China； 3.Staff Development Institute of China National Tobacco Corporation，Zhengzhou 450008，China） Abstract：Aiming to determine the main social factors affecting the tobacco grower’ income from complex fuzzy numerous factors affecting the tobacco grower’ income，using DEMATEL，on the basis of the mutual influences of various social factors affecting the tobacco grower’ income，the direct effect matrix was established by constructing the interaction among factors，and thenthe comprehensive influence matrix，the influence degreeof each factor，influence degree， centrality degree and reason degree were calculated. By DEMATEL data factors，the main factors affecting the tobacco grower’ income were the following six factors：planting area，field management measures，tobacco grower age，financial support and subsidies，the amount of labor， labor price. Accoring to the research results，the proposal was suggested to ehhance the tobacco grower’ income and improve “three agriculture” problems. Key words：DEMATEL；social factor；network modeling ?Q策试验与评价实验室法（DEMATEL）是一种通过构造图的矩阵量化数据演算来分析处理复杂问题的一种系统的因素分析方法，最早由美国学者提出[1]。DEMATEL法可运用常年从事相关行业的科研学者、技术工作者的经验、知识来分析处理复杂的社会、经济、安全、网络信息等问题，并且对模糊系统的不确定要素关系尤为有效[2]。