中国双顺差分析.ppt

explain the phenomenon of double surplus and the changes current account is positive as well as the capital and financial account CA+KA=0 CA=If If the current account for the country is positive, it should be a net lender to the rest of the world. However: China is a double surplus country--------abnormal phenomenon jump out of the theoretical world of our textbooks come back to the real life In the textbook, it is assumed that the goods and capital can flow freely ,with no limit, but in practice it may not be the case. dilemma（困境） and solution When it wants to develop, it may face a dilemma: on the one hand,development needs to accumulate capital, and also needs to guide the inflow of capital; on the other hand, export can make the wealth be accumulated, but at the cost of capital outflow. This is the important reason that it greatly restricts their development. solution：the government intervention（国家干预） our market economy is not mature, and the government intervention ability is greatly strong At the early stage (2000-2006) we find that the trends of double surplus in the data are very clear,they almost become large.It has many reasons: REASON 1: decided by the factor endowment theory（要素禀赋理论） and the comparative advantage theory（比较优势理论）. China has a large number of cheap labor in the early stage of Chinese economic reform , so the processing trade（加工贸易） has an inborn comparative advantages.According to the division of the world, China should export a lot of cheap manufactured goods. And in the beginning stages, domestic consumption is not high, which has not yet reached the stage of a large number of service trade imports, that makes Chinas trade balance positive. In a large extent it determines the current account surplus. Another point is the double surplus become large REASON 2:the government s intervention----to prevent capital outflows and to export more for wealth The government selects the exogenous growth t