基于SPSS软件的黑河正义峡下泄水量预报分析.docxVIP

基于SPSS软件的黑河正义峡下泄水量预报分析胡广录 张济世 樊立娟摘要:基于1951-2000 年黑河莺落峡、正义峡断面径流量观测数据和中游地区气象观测资料，采用SPSS 多元线性逐步回归分析模型分析了影响正义峡断面下泄水量的莺落峡断面年径流量、黑河中游年平均气温等因素，并对2001-2011年正义峡断面自然状态下的下泄水量进行了模拟预报。结果表明: 黑河调水及中游工农业生产的快速发展对正义峡断面自然状态下下泄水量的影响显著，2001-2011 年预报的多年平均值较1951-2000 年预报的多年平均值偏小0．792 亿m3，从而影响了黑河分水方案的正常实施，建议对现行的黑河分水方案进行修订和完善。关键词: SPSS 软件; 线性逐步回归; 水量预报; 下泄水量; 正义峡断面; 黑河中图分类号: P333 文献标志码:A doi:10．3969 /j．issn．1000-1379．2013．04．009Forecasting and Analysis of the Discharged Water Capacity of Zhengyi Gorge Section in Heihe River Based on SPSS ModelHU Guang-lu，ZHANG Ji-shi，FAN Li-juanAbstract: Based on the observed annual runoff series data in Yingluo Gorge and Zhengyi Gorge section of Heihe River，and the annual meteorological observation data in the middle area of Heihe River basin from 1951 to 2000，the influence factors such as the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge section and the annual average temperature of the middle Heihe River were analyzed with the SPSS multiple linear stepwise regression analysis model，and the model equation was used to simulate and forecast the discharged water capacity of Zhengyi Gorge section from 2001 to 2011 under the natural conditions．The results show that the unified water allocation of the main stream of Heihe River and the rapid development of industry and agriculture in the middle area of Heihe River have significant impact on the discharged water capacity of Zhengyi Gorge section．Using the model equation，we forecasted that the average value for the years from 2001 to 2011 was less 0．792 ×108 m3 than the average value for the years from 1951 to 2000，the results affected the normal implementation of water diversion plan of Heihe River．Therefore，the proposals to revise and improve the existing water diversion scheme of Heihe River are put forward in the paper．Key words: SPSS software; stepwise regression analysis; water volume; discharged water volume forecasting; Zhengyi Gorge section; Heihe River黑河是发源于祁连山的河西走廊三大内陆河水系之一，也是仅次于塔里木河的中国第二大内陆河。黑河流域横跨青海、甘肃、内蒙古三省(区)，以莺