人民币汇率升值对机电产品贸易收支影响的实证分析以江苏与广东为例pdf.doc

第 8 卷第 3 期 江南大学学报( 人文社会科学版) Vo l. 8 N o. 3 2009 年 6 月 Journal of Jiangnan University( Humanities Social Sciences) Jun. 2009 人民币汇率升值对机电产品贸易 收支影响的实证分析 以江苏与广东为例 陈蓓蓓, 谢玉梅 ( 江南大学商学院, 江苏无锡 214122) [ 摘 要] 文章以江苏和广东为例, 分析人民币汇率升值对两省机电产品贸易收支的影响。从短期来看, 人民币汇 率升值对两省机电产品贸易收支影响不大, 主要贸易伙伴国 GDP 增长是导致两省机电产品贸易收支顺差的主要 原因。但从长期看, 随着未来人民币汇率升值幅度的加大和我国新劳动法的实施, 低附加值机电产品出口优势将 会消失, 这将对我国机电产品如何提高附加值, 增加科技含量和增强自主创新能力提出挑战。 [ 关键词] 人民币升值; 机电产品贸易; 影响因素 [ 中图分类号] F 752. 8 [ 文献标识码] A [ 文章编号] 1671 6973( 2009) 03 0083 05 The Influence of RMB Rate Revaluation on Mechanical and Electrical Products Trade Payment A Case Study of Jiangsu and Guangdong CH EN Pei pei, XIE Yu mei ( Business Schoo l, Jiang nan U niv er sity , Wux i 214122, China) Abstract: Taking Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province for example, this paper analyzes the influence of the appreciation of RMB ex change rate on the trade of two provinces mechanical and electrical products. In this tex t, it is deemed that the appreciation of RMB ex change rate makes a slight impact on the trade of both Jiangsu and Guangdongs mechanical and electrical products in a short time. The GDP increase of the main trade partner countries is the most important reason for the balance of trade surplus. H ow ever, in the long run, w ith RMB exchang e rate revaluation to a big marg in and the new labor law put into practice, the exporting advantage of low added mechanical and electrical products will disappear. This brings a real challenge on how to enhance added value of our countrys mechanical and electrical products and how to improve technology and to innovate independently. Key words: Appr eciation o f RM B Exchange Rate; Trade of Mechanical and Electrical Products; Influence Factors 动汇率制, 当天美元兑换人民币汇率升为 8. 11; 一、研究背景 2008 年 4 月 10 日, 美元兑换人民币汇率突破 7 元 我国从2005 年 7 月21 日起开始实现人民币浮 大关, 人民币汇率升值预期仍在持续。人民币汇率 [ 收稿日期] 2008 01 18 [ 基金项目] 教育部人文社科基金项目 中外小额贷款比较研究 ( 06JA 790043) . [ 作者简介] 谢玉梅( 1966 ) , 女, 江苏宜兴人, 教授, 管理学博士. 陈蓓蓓( 1985 ) ,