2崇明生态岛可再生能源发展现状-同济大学学报.doc

崇明生态岛可再生能源产业发展路径分析 Analysis on roadmap of renewable energy industry development in Chongming ecoisland 郭茹，杨海真 1, 同济大学环境科学与工程学院 2, 联合国环境规划署－同济大学环境与可持续发展学院 Guo Ru, Yang Haizhen 1, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. 2, UNEP-Tongji Institute of Environment for Sustainable Development, Tongji University, Shanghai, China. 摘要：崇明是世界上最大的河口冲击岛，发展目标定位于世界级生态岛，受到国内外的诸多关注。提出一种产业发展的集成分析方法，将态势分析法(SWOT)和钻石模型结合起来研究了在崇明发展可再生能源产业的可行性。结果表明：1）短期内崇明可再生能源产业难以出现较大的发展，但远期有可能成为崇明世界级生态岛经济建设中的重要产业；2）应注重“错位发展”，选择适合崇明岛特点的可再生能源产业细分市场；3）崇明岛可再生能源产业发展具有良好的外部环境和较强的需求；4）崇明在生产要素和相关行业支撑方面却十分薄弱，也缺乏明确的战略，因而竞争力有限；5)可再生能源产业具有高增长的特性，可以带给崇明较大的后发优势。但如果想要实现这种后发优势，必须充分发挥政策优势和外部力量的作用。 关键词：可再生能源产业；态势分析法；钻石模型；错位发展 Abstract: Chongming, the largest estuarine alluvial island in the world, received more and more attention home and abroad because of its ambitious development target of international ecoisland. This paper presents an integrated approach to analyze industrial development by combining SWOT analysis and Diamond Model, which is applied to exploring the feasibility of renewable energy industry development in Chongming Ecoisland. The main findings are: 1) it is not easy for Chongming to develop renewable energy industry in a short term, while a long-term strategy is more feasible. 2) The most important thing in developing renewable energy industry of Chongming Ecoisland is to get staggered development in a coordinated and complementary way; 3) Chongming has good external environment and relatively strong need to develop renewable energy industry; 4) There is lack of factors of production and support from related industries. And Clear strategy and core competence are also absent. 5) Renewable energy industry is of great potential in Chongming if policy is really implemented and external resources are fully utilized. Key words:renewable energy industry; SWOT;diamond model; staggered development 发展可再生能源是保障能源安全和应对气候变化的重要举措，受到世界各国的关注。2009年世界可再生能源占世界能源消费总量的19%，其中以供