土石流发生区位与台风降雨分布之研究-财团法人中兴工程顾问社.DOC

都會區周緣坡地山崩潛勢評估 Che-Wei Shen, Chuen-Ming Huang, Lun-Wei Wei, Shu-Rong Yang, Yi-Rui Lee, Yen-Shian Lin, Pao-Shan Hsieh 摘要 本計畫已執行四年，本年度(99年)將整合並重新評估北、中、南、東等都會區101圖幅範圍(1/25,000地形圖範圍)之山崩潛勢。其計畫工作項目包含事件型山崩目錄建置、斜坡單元劃設、潛勢因子篩選及山崩潛勢評估模式建立等。其中，以山崩潛勢圖建置及山崩警戒降雨量門檻為本(99)年度計畫之執行重點。 計畫執行方面，計畫執行方面，將以衛星影像判釋及建置事件型山崩目錄；以5m精度之數值高程模型(DEM)，建置173,751個斜坡單元；另由山崩潛勢因子初選因子中挑選出三類適合斜坡單元應用之潛勢因子，並確立15個地質分區之潛勢因子，分別建立其山崩潛勢模式。此外，山崩潛勢模式主要由羅吉斯回歸方法建立，並區分岩屑崩滑、岩體滑動、落石等山崩潛勢模式。根據誤差分類矩陣分析結果，各地質分區岩屑崩滑型山崩潛勢模式準確率均可達七成以上，以礫石區最高(達86.9%)，最低為西部麓山帶砂頁互層岩組區(僅達73.4%)；而岩體滑動與落石型山崩潛勢模式準確率分別為83%與88.7%。本計畫四年成果將可作為災前整備與災中應變之參考，並初步達成豪雨條件下山崩預警之目標。 關鍵詞：山崩潛勢, 事件型山崩目錄, 斜坡單元, 羅吉斯回歸. Abstract In the forth year of this project, in Central, Southern, Northern and Eastern Taiwan a total of 101 pieces (CEPD version of the 1 / 25,000 topographic maps) was re-evaluated the landslide susceptibility because the analysis process of landslide susceptibility was improved. The major scopes of work are building up the event-based landslides inventories, dividing the slope unit, landslides susceptibility factor selection and landslides susceptibility modeling finally. The most important issues are making landslides susceptibility maps and rainfall Threshold for early warning the landslides based on the landslides susceptibility model. In this project, the event-based landslides inventories were established by Satellite image interpretation. The DEM of the study region were used for dividing the 173,751 slope units, more than 100 factors related with landslides susceptibility were screened by GIS and preliminary classified into 3 categories and 14 factors. After Factor analysis and correlation analysis, factors in fifteen geological zones were selected for building the landslides susceptibility models. Moreover, landslide susceptibility analyses of three landslide types (debris slide, rock slide and rock fall) were build up by logistic regression. Finally, landslide hazard susceptibility models were established and the suscepti