港元、人民币一体化研究------基于中美对比视角的实证分析.docVIP

港元、人民币一体化研究------基于中美对比视角的实证摘要：现有的研究认为联系汇率制度是香港的最优选择，但港元和人民币的双向大规模流通不断冲击着联系汇率制度，人民币的升值预期更是加剧了它对港元的货币替代。为了检验香港是否适宜与中国内地组成最优货币区，本文以香港和美国的关系作为参照，使用严格的计量方法分析了香港与内地的经济融合程度和经济冲击的对称性水平。结果发现：在商品市场和实际资本市场的融合，以及总供给冲击的对称性方面，香港与内地的关系较之香港与美国要占据优势，但是在金融市场的融合方面，以及总需求冲击和货币冲击方面，香港与内地的联系要弱于香港与美国。因此，在可预见的将来，香港需要与内地进行更为高级的货币合作，在现阶段，香港的联系汇率制度还有其存在的经济依据。 关键词：港元 人民币 美元 最优货币区 Hong Kong Dollar and RMB----an Empirical Analysis Based on the Comparison between Mainland China and USA Abstract: The existed literature concluded that ‘Linked Exchange Regime’ is Hong Kong’s optimal choice. However, the cross-region circulation of the Hong Kong Dollar and RMB has shocked the Linked Exchange Regime, which is aggravated by the recent appreciation expectation on RMB. To test whether it is appropriate to construct an optimum currency area within Hong Kong and Mainland of China, this paper comprehensively examines the degree of economy integration and symmetry of economic shocks of Hong Kong and Mainland of China, regarding the relationship between Hong Kong and the USA as the benchmark by strict econometric methods. It turns out that the goods markets of Hong Kong and Mainland of China are inter-related more closely than the ones of the USA and Hong Kong, and the aggregate supply shock they suffered is more symmetric than that of the USA and Hong Kong; on the other hand, the relationship between Hong Kong and USA in financial markets and their symmetry degree in aggregate demand shocks and monetary shocks dominates that of Mainland of China and Hong Kong. Therefore, it is natural for Hong Kong to cooperate more closely with Mainland of China on Currency issues in predictable future, while Hong Kong’ current currency regime still has its economic foundation at present. Key Words: Hong Kong Dollar, RMB, US Dollar, Optimum Currency Area 一、导论 香港自1983年10月实行联系汇率制度以来，1美元7.8港元的官方平价一直未做出调整1997至1998年的亚洲金融危机中，港元成为国际投机资本攻击的目标金融市场进行干预，击溃了投机力量，维护了联汇制香港经济陷入。联系汇率制度的缺陷学术界的关注在保持原有的根本性制度安排不变的前提下，先后出现了 “七项技术措施”和“三项优化措施