利用rcm气候情景综合评价气候变化对 中国主要脆弱领域的影响阈值.pdf

IGES-ERI Policy Research Workshop Research on Risk Management for Climate Change Impacts in China Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; e-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn 11 Dec., 2013 Outline  Research progress on CC impacts  Research progress on policy-making  Future Work 3 Outline  Research progress on CC impacts Climate scenarios employed Scientific understanding: from impacts to risk assessment  Research progress on policy-making  Future Work 3 Climate Scenarios Employed  Before 8th 5-year: incremental scenarios  8th 5-year (1991-1995): 2 ×CO -1 ×CO , 2 2 GCM+WG  9th 5-year (1996-2000): IS92, GCM+WG  10th 5-year (2001-2005): SRES, GCM+PRECIS  11th 5-year (2006-2010): SRES, PRECIS+RegCM, etc 3  12th 5-year (2011~): SRES+RCPs, PRECIS+RegCM, etc An introduction to downscaling Impacts GCMs Downscaling Models Horizontal Local resolution: details ~250-600 km What is PRECIS? PRECIS—Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies A regional modelling system developed at the Hadley Centre Purpose of PRECIS  To develop high-resolution regional climate scenarios