漫谈金融全球化 - NBER.PPT

漫谈金融全球化 魏尚进 纯属个人观点, 言责自负 文献小结: 金融全球化, 理论上好处一条接一条; 费尽吃奶尽, 实证的效果不妙也不巧. 综述文章: Prasad, Rogoff, Wei, and Kose, IMF, 2003 Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei, 2005 (JEL?) Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Direct Channels Efficient international allocation of capital For capital-poor economies—lower cost of capital, higher investment Spillovers of technological and managerial expertise Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Indirect Channels Domestic financial sector development Specialization Disciplining device for macro policies Benefits of Financial Integration: Theory Effects on Volatility No strong implication for output volatility Consumption smoothing via international risk sharing = Lower consumption volatility Growth Benefits of Financial Integration: Evidence About 20 studies of growth effects No effect: 4 Mixed: 12 Positive: 4 閾值效应 (Threshold Effect): 政府缺良治, 金融开放则危机增发百姓更吃苦; 政府有良治, 金融开放则投资增加生活有出路. 例子: 新加坡, 香港 阿根廷, 刚果 文献: Wei, 2000; Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych, 2003; Klein, 2005; Chinn and Ito, 2005. 组合效应 (Composition Effect): 国际银行贷款两刃刀, 危机增加效率也难保; 国际直接投资效果好, 资本增加风险又减少. 例子: 中国 vs. 阿根廷 文献: Frankel and Rose; Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei; Frankel and Wei. The composition hypothesis Not all capital flows are equal FDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more beneficial to growth than debt Desoto and Reisen 2001; Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005, JFE FDI is also less volatile than international bank loans - More reliance on bank loans increases vulnerability to currency crashes Frankel and Rose, 1996; Frankel and Wei, 2005 Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Standard Deviation) Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Coefficient of Variation) 閾值效应 与组合效应: 文献中提出为两个独立的解释 两者是否可能是同一硬币的两面? 魏尚进 (2000, 2001); 魏尚进与武屹 (2002) Corruption is linked to a composition of capital inflows away from FDI and towards bank loans. Feira and Mauro (2005): Higher institutional