A Long-term Scenarios Analysis on LEDs General …（长期场景分析led一般u2026）.pdfVIP

我国半导体照明节能预测分析 刘 虹 A long-term Energy Saving Analysis on LEDs General Lighting in China Keywords Energy saving analysis, LEDs general lighting Abstract Based on survey of China’s lighting products market and estimation of trends of LEDs technical innovation of general lighting, the paper has established a model to analyze the impacts on China’s future lighting market and energy efficiency potential as LEDs appear to be a next generation of general lighting source. By doing scenarios analysis, the results of this study indicated that only 1% of LEDs contribution rate to the lighting market will be realized by 2018, while up to nearly 2.5% by 2020 under the baseline scenarios; for technology-breakthrough scenarios, 1% of LEDs contribution rate will be realized by 2015, increase to 14% by 2020; while under the price-breakthrough scenarios, LEDs will constitute 1% contribution rate to the general lighting market by 2013, two years earlier in comparison, due to the decreased price, the market penetration process will speed up and by 2015 and 2020 the contribution rate of LEDs to general lighting market will increase to 9% and 69% respectively. Meanwhile, the electricity saving effects of LEDs with regard to general lighting field will show up approximately by 2013, with electricity consumption increase from over 278.4 Twh for general lighting of 2005 to 398.2 Twh in 2020 under baseline scenario; while under the technology-breakthrough scenario, the consumption for lighting of 2020 will be 344.9 Twh, under price-breakthrough scenario, the figure will drop to 313.4 Twh instead. Therefore, in 2020 there will be an energy saving possibility of 53.4 Twh with regard to the technology-breakthrough scenario; meanwhile the price-breakthrough solution in comparison with the baseline has a considerable energy saving potential over 84.8 Twh. 1. Introduction People ar