统计学-Prob-Sat.pptVIP

Statistics Sarah Maher James Reilly Event A set containing possible outcomes of an experiment Eg. Roll a Die Event {1} {2} {3} {4} {5} {6} The result is odd is the event {1,3,5} The result is even is the event {2,4,6} Two events Two events as a result of the same experiment, have a special relationship They are said to be either Mutually Exclusive Independent Mutually Exclusive The two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot both happen at the same time Eg. Roll a die You cannot get 2 and 4 at the same time Two events: P(E) = 2, P(F) = 4 Said to be mutually exclusive Eg. At a football match, two teams playing A and B P(A) = Team A wins P(B) = Team B wins Both cannot happen at the same time! Independent Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the likelihood of the other event occurring Eg. Toss a coin and roll a die Event A: a 4 is rolled on the die Event B: a tails is thrown The toss of the coin does not affect the number rolled on the die Probability (p) Definition 1: “how often” The probability of an event means the relative frequency of occurrence of the event when many trials are performed Another term: proportion How often the event occurs p = 1, Event Always Occurs p = 0, Event Never Occurs In general, 0 p 1 Example Experiment: Tossing a coin Trial: single toss Outcome can be either Heads or Tails Event: outcome(s) we are interested in If a coin is tossed once, the probability that the outcome is heads is ? (one outcome/two possibilities) Proportion of outcomes that are heads = ? Definition 2: “how likely” the probability of an event is a measure of how likely the event is to occur on a single trial in the future p = 1, Event is certain to occur p = 0, Event is certain not to occur 1: a large number of tosses, heads will occur on half 2: if tossed once, 0.5 indicates how likely heads will occur Tossing a coin H = heads T = tails P(H) = ? T