人民币汇率升值的动态可计算一般均衡分析.pdf

21 6 ( ) Vol. 2 1, No . 6 2 0 0 7 1 1 Journal of Hunan University( Social Sciences) Nov . 2 0 0 7 * 刘凤娟, 王耀中 ( , 410079) [ ] 在动态可计算一般均衡( MCHUGE) 模型的基础上, 考察了人民币汇率稳 升值对中国对外开放和 经济增长的影响外贸方面, 人民币升值会降低总的出口量, 提高总的进口量, 增加贸易赤字, 但长期和短期, 对不 同产品的进出口影响不一; 外资方面, 人民币升值会降低我国的外汇储备, 加大我国对外直接投资, 同时外商对我 国的投资会增加; 宏观影响方面人民币升值将促进农业采矿业公共服务建筑业服务业的产出, 但在升值初期 并不利于制造业的产出, 但是总就业和总资本存量的增加最终会带动GDP 的增长 [ ] 动态可计算一般均衡; 人民币汇率升值; 进出口贸易; 外资 [ ] F822 [ ] A [ ] 1008 ) 1763( 2007) 06) 0055) 07 Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate: A Dynamic CGE Analysis LIU Fen -juan, WANG Yao-zhon ( Colle e of Economics and T rade, Hunan University, Chan sha 4 10079, China) Abstract:T his paper aims to evaluatin the effect of appreciation of RMB ex chan e rate on Chinese open- ness and economic row th. In terms of forei n trade, the appreciation of RMB ex chan e rate w ill reduce the to- tal volume of export and raise the total volume of import and hence the trade deficit. How ever, the effect on the import and export for different products varies in the lon term and short term. Re ardin forei n investment, appreciation of RMB exchan e rate w ill decrease forei n reserve of China and increase overseas investment as w ell as the forei n direct investment on China. In respect to the national economy as a w hole, the appreciation of RM B w ill raise the output of sector of a riculture, mine, public service, construction and service. In the in-i tial period, the appreciation w ill decrease the output of manufacturin sector w hile the increase of total employ- ment and capital stock w ill drive the increase of GDP in the end. Key words: dynamic computable eneral equilibrium; appreciation of RM B ex chan e rate; import and ex- port;