地下水模拟不确定性分析 - 南京大学学报（自然科学）.PDF

( ) 47 3 Vol. 47, No. 3 JOURNAL OF NANJING U NIVERSITY 2011 5 Ma 2011 ( NAT URA L SCIENCES) * ** 吴吉春 , 陆 乐 ( , , 2 10093) : , . , . , , , . , , . : , , , : P 641 Uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling W u J iChun, L u L e ( Department of H drosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering , Nanjing Universit , Nanjing, 210093, China) Abstract: The reliabilit of groundwater modeling is vulnerable to man uncertain factors. Thus, it is necessar to quantif the uncertainties in groundw ater modeling . T hese uncertainties are divided into three categories: parameter uncertaint , model uncertaint and information uncert aint , w hile each is illustrated and anal zed respectivel . Then the common methods of uncert aint anal sis for groundw ater modeling as w ell as the recent advances of this topic in China are reviewed. In addition, an ex ample of quant ification of uncert aint in conceptual model is presented, w hich indicates that errors in model structure can result in critical increase of uncertaint in model results. Key words: groundwater modeling , uncertaint , Ba esian method, M arkovchain Monte Carlo * : ( : 2010- 11- 22 ** , Email: jcw u@ nju. edu. cn 228 ( ) 47 , ) , , . ; ( 2) , . - , ( representative e