郑州市水环境承载力研究雷宏军.pdfVIP

中国农村水利水电# 2008 年第7 期 15 : 1007-2284( 2008) 07-0015- 05 雷宏军, 刘 鑫, 陈 豪, 王振雨 ( , 450011) : 采用系统动力学模型和控制目标反推模型( COIM) 研究了郑 州 水环境承载力状况以Vensim 为工具软 件, 建立了系统动力学模型, 选取了5 个指标并利用向量模法对不同发展方案进行评价结果表明, 综合方案全面考虑 南水北调工程调水水资源合理开发与污水治理, 既增加了水资源的供应量, 又提高了水体的质量, 较大幅度提高了郑 州 水环境承载力, 且未来规划水平年水环境承载力呈上升趋势然而, 系统动力学评价结果只是 一个比值, 只能从整体 上反映水环境承载力的发展趋势在此基础上, 运用 COIM 模型, 以水体COD 为控制目标对郑州 的水环境承载力情 况进行分析, 并给出了提高水环境承载力的多种对比方案综合分析表明, 系统动力学模型可较好地把握水环境承载力 的整体发展趋向, 有利于宏观对策的提出; 控制目标反推模型可较好地反映不同措施下的水环境状况, 有利于具体措施 的提出 : 水环境承载力; 系统动力学; COIM 模型 : T V2 1 : A Research on the Carrying Capacity of Water Environment in Zhengzhou City LEI Hong-jun, LIU Xin, CHE Hao, WA G Zhen-yu ( North Chin Institute of W ter Conserv ncy nd H y droelectric Power , Zhengzhou 450011, Chin ) Abstract:In this p per, system dyn m ics models nd cont rolled object inversion models ( COIM) re used to rese rch into the w ter environment c rrying c p city ( WECC) of Zhengzhou City. By using Vensim softw re, sy stem dyn mics model is built nd used to ssess the W ECC in the pl nning ye rs of 2005, 20 10, 20 15 nd 2020. And five w t er environment l index es re selected nd Vector Norm is pplied to ev lu te t he six schemes: m int ining ex isting condition, s ving w ter, exploring new w ter resources, tr nsfer- ring long dist nce w ter , controlling pollution, comprehensive me surements. Results show th t, the comprehensive scheme h s considered the South-to-North w ter diversion, the r tion l exploit tion of w ter resources nd sew ge tre tment, w hich h s in- cre sed the mount of w ter supply nd improved the w ter environment qu lity . And the W ECC index w ill be improved in the fut ure pl nning ye rs. In the dyn mic model,