Ch2 v9 ) National Treasury（Ch2 v9)国库）.pdf

2 Economic outlook In brief • South Africa’s economy continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously expected. GDP growth is projected at 2.7 per cent in 2013, 3.5 per cent in 2014 and 3.8 per cent in 2015. • Faster economic growth will require greater private investment and improved trade performance. As the policy environment becomes more stable, the global economy recovers and confidence returns, South Africa’s opportunities for growth will expand. • Strong public-sector capital investment, additional electricity-generating capacity, relatively stable inflation, low interest rates and robust economic activity in southern Africa will contribute to a supportive environment for improved growth over the medium term. • Moderate employment growth is expected over the next three years. Job creation prospects depend largely on private-sector hiring as fiscal pressures constrain public-sector employment growth. • The current account deficit is forecast to average 6.2 per cent over the medium term. Consumer inflation is projected to remain within the 3-6 per cent target band over the next three years. • Implementing the National Development Plan (NDP) will strengthen growth and accelerate job creation, while broadening social development and economic participation. Overview here are signs of improvement in the world economy. Policy GDP growth is a primary actions during 2012 helped to avert new economic and fiscal crises indicator of the health of an Tin advanced economies. Yet buoyancy in world markets and economy. Strong GDP improved sentiment should be assessed in the context of continued and growth generally indicates widespread risk. Many advanced economies contracted during the fourth