基于动力机制城市空间拓展探究.docVIP

基于动力机制城市空间拓展探究摘要：随着我国工业化与城动力机制下的空间拓展特征,借此对未来可能出现的空间拓展进行预市化的快速推进,各大城市空间扩展和土地需求规模急剧增加,许多城市都面临大规模的城市空间扩展问题。如何解决持续的发展动力与建构弹性的空间结构成为当前规划需要重点考察和研究的问题。本文试图通过主成分分析法,探索城市空间扩展的不同动力因素及其作用机制,以及不同动力机制下的空间拓展特征，借此ui未来可能出现的空间拓展进行预测和判断,从而未雨绸缪的做出决策。本文以汕头市空间拓展为实例,分析汕头在不同阶段,经济、社会、城市化等动力因素作用下空间拓展的特征,并通过建立线性模型对其未来的拓展时序进行大胆预测,为其空间发展战略提供支撑。 关键词：动力机制、空间拓展、主成分分析、时序 Abstract: With the space under the dynamic mechanism of China’s industrialization and city expansion characteristics, to take this space for possible future expansion of the rapid advance of the pre-urbanization, the spatial expansion of cities and dramatic increase in the scale of demand for land, many cities are facingthe scale of urban spatial expansion problems. How to solve the current planning needs to focus on investigation and research of continuing impetus to the development and construction of flexible space structure.This paper attempts by the principal component analysis to explore the different dynamics of urban spatial expansion factor and its mechanism of action, as well as different dynamic mechanisms of space to expand the characteristics to ui space for possible future expansion of the forecast and judgment, so take precautions to makedecision-making. Shantou City space to expand as an example, analyze the characteristics of Shantou space to expand the role of the different stages of economic, social, urbanization and dynamic factors, and through the establishment of the linear model for its future expansion timing bold prediction for space development strategy to provide support. Keywords: mechanisms of power, space to expand, principal component analysis, timing. 中图分类号：F291.1文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1、引言 城市空间拓展是城市在各种动力作用下的一种空间推进，对城市空间拓展的研究实质上就是将这种动力机制的现状、潜在可能和趋势解释为空间的语言，其结论可用于明确规划手法的选择、具体方法确定等。 国内外对城市空间进行解析的理论有针对实体环境的城市空间研究理论、强调空间人文社会属性的芝加哥学派，从政治因素着手分析的结构学派等。随着城市地理信息技术发展、空间拓展研究开始向动态化模型发展，利用GIS空间增长模型、微观主体演变机制模型（元细胞自动机（CA）、SLEUTH模型）对空间拓展进行监视和动态模拟【1】。但这些模型主要考虑的是城市土地利用中的自然因素，与城市规划的实际操作思路不一致，且其成果更多的是对过程的模拟