风电场风速概率分布云变换建模.pdfVIP

第 31 卷第 3 期 电 力 科 学 与 技 术 学 报 Vol.31 No.3 2016年 9 月 JOURNAL OF EIECTRIC POWER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Sep. 2016 风电场风速概率分布云变换建模 马 瑞 ，苏 5玉，蒋铁铮 (长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院，湖 南 长 沙 410004) 摘 要 ：目前风电场风速概率分布模型选择偏少、通用性较差、拟合精度难以满足风电场的规划设计需求。为此， 提出一种风速概率分布云变换模型，详细阐述风速分布云变换模型的求取步骤；并在风速概率分布边界处采用半 云模型拟合处理，通过概念跃升，对相近的云模型进行概念跃升，从而减少了云变换模型中云模型的个数。算例分 析表明：适当的概念跃升能减少云模型个数，云变换模型拟合精度高，能满足风电场的规划设计需求。 关 键 词 ：风电场；风速模型；云变换模型；半云模型 中 图 分 类 号 ：TM614 文 献 标 识 码 ： A 文 章 编 号 ：1673-9140(2016)03-0035-07 Wind speed probability distribution modeling with cloud transformation for wind power plant M A R u i， SU J u e ，JIA N G Tie-zheng (School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410004, China) Abstract ：C urrently ? wind speed probability distribution model is w ith less model types? p r ap­ plicability and low precision, and it is difficult to satisfy the requirem ents of wind power plant op­ eration , planning and design. A wind speed probability distribution m odeling m ethod and its building steps was proposed in this paper. T he m ethod considered th at the fitting precision of nor­ mal cloud model at the probability distribution border was low , and a semi-cloud model was used. T he num ber of cloud m odels can be decreased through concept jum ping for sim ilar cloud model. Cases analysis results show th at the appropriate concept of jum ping can reduce the num ber of cloud model? the cloud transform ation model is sim plifi