基于SWAT模型的沙澧河流域径流模拟.PDFVIP

44 2 ( ) Vol.44 No. 2 2011 4 Engineering Journal of Wuhan University Apr. 2011 :2011) SWAT 1 1,2 2 翟晓燕 , 夏军 , 张永勇 ( 1. , 430072; 2. , 100101) : SWAT , LAOAT , ; 1997 2002 ; 3 . Nash - 4. 3% 0. 820. 73 19% 0. 940. 87. , , , 1 % , 2 , 2 % . . : ; ; ; : P 338 : A Runoff simulation of Shali River basin based on SWAT model 1 1, 2 2 ZHAI Xiaoyan , XIA Jun , ZHANG Yongyong ( 1. St ate Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropow er Engineering Science, Wuhan University , Wuhan 430072, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, CAS, Beijing 100101, China) Abstract: A distributed hydrological model for the Shali River basin is built based on SWAT , in w hich sen sitivity analysis of parameters is done w ith LAOAT method. Base flow is separated by digital filter . Run off components are calibrated and validated by observed flow from 1997 to 2002. T he hydrological effects of climate changes are analyzed based on 3 kinds of climate change scenarios. T he relative error, correla tion coefficient and Nash coefficient of total runoff are - 4. 3%, 0. 82, 0. 73 and 19%, 0. 94, 0. 87 during calibration and validation period. T he multiscenario analysis show s that the precipitation increase and temperature decrease are in favor of runoff increase, in w hich the most favorable scenario is that runoff in creased 2 % w hen precipitation increase of 1 % and temperature decrease of 2 ; the results can provide reference for future w ater planning and management. Ke