jerla–overviewofthecoloradoriverbasin-urbanwaterinstitute.ppt

Overview of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Urban Water Institute 19th Annual Water Policy Conference August 22-24, 2012 San Diego CA Study Objective Assess future water supply and demand imbalances over the next 50 years Develop and evaluate opportunities for resolving imbalances Study being conducted by Reclamation and the Basin States, in collaboration with stakeholders throughout the Basin Began in January 2010 and to be completed in Fall 2012 A planning study – will not result in any decisions, but will provide the technical foundation for future activities Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Historic Colorado River Water Supply Use(Annual) 6 Study Phases and Tasks Phase 1:Water Supply Assessment Phase 2:Water Demand Assessment Phase 3:System Reliability Analysis Phase 4:Development Evaluation of Opportunities 1.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Supply 1.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Supply 1.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Supply 1.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Supply 2.1 – Select Methods to Estimate Current Demand 2.2 – Select Methods to Project Future Demand 2.3 – Conduct Assessment of Current Demand 2.4 – Conduct Assessment of Future Demand 3.1 – Identify Reliability Metrics 3.2 – Estimate Baseline System Reliability 3.3 – Project Future System Reliability 4.1 – Develop Opportunities 4.2 – Evaluate and Refine Opportunities 4.3 – Finalize Opportunities 3.3.5-3.3.8 – Project Future Reliability with Opportunities Formulate Approach to Include Uncertainty Develop Future Supply and Demand Scenarios Green denotes essentially complete Addressing an Uncertain Future The path of major influences on the Colorado River system is uncertain and can not be represented by a single view An infinite number of plausible futures exist A manageable and informative number of scenarios are being developed to explore the broad range of futures (adapted from Timpe and Scheepers, 2003) Water Supply Scen