System Dynamic Macroeconomic Model The （系统动态宏观经济模型）.pdfVIP

Proceedings of the 7th WSEAS International Conference on Mathematics Computers in Business Economics, Cavtat, Croatia, June 13-15, 2006 (pp82-87) System Dynamic Macroeconomic Model - The Case of Croatia ŽELJKO GARAČA Faculty of Economics University of Split Matice hrvatske 31, 21000 Split CROATIA Abstract: - This paper is about decision support with system dynamic simulation. System dynamics is a method that explores the behavior of complex dynamic systems with feedback loops. It is a method of continuous simulation, suitable for work with highly aggregated variables, and especially suitable for simulation modeling of economic systems. The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation model of the national macroeconomic system. The paper focuses on developing a simulation model, rather then suggesting some concrete macroeconomic policy, although the paper does contain experiments with some simple scenarios regarding the monetary policy. The model is primarily focused on changes of GDP, foreign debt and budgetary deficit, which stand for the main problems of Croatian economy. The market is positioned in the center of the model, and market balance is achieved on the aggregated level of supply and demand, expressed in quantities. The model also includes the sub-model of government budgeting with basic categories of accompanied incomes and expenditures, as well as sub-models of employment, debt financing, inflation and exchange rat