Time Series Analysis of Household Electric （时间序列分析的家用电器）.pdfVIP

Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists 2013 Vol I, IMECS 2013, March 13 - 15, 2013, Hong Kong Time Series Analysis of Household Electric Consumption with ARIMA and ARMA Models Pasapitch Chujai*, Nittaya Kerdprasop, and Kittisak Kerdprasop  series used forecasting techniques to identify models from Abstract—The purposes of this research are to find a model the past data. With the assumption that the information will to forecast the electricity consumption in a household and to resemble itself in the future, we can thus forecast future find the most suitable forecasting period whether it should be events from the occurred data. in daily, weekly, monthly, or quarterly. The time series data in There are several methods of statistical forecasting such our study was individual household electric power consumption from December 2006 to November 2010. The data as regressing analysis, classical decomposition method, Box analysis has been performed with the ARIMA (Autoregressive and Jenkins and smooting techniques. These techniques Integrated Moving Average) and ARMA (Autoregressive provide forecasting models of different accuracy. The Moving Average) models. The suitable forecasting methods accuracy of the prediction is based on the minimum error of and the most suitable forecasting period were chosen by the forecast. The appropriate prediction methods