Weather Forecasting Introduction （天气预报的介绍）.pdfVIP

Chapter 14 - Weather Forecasting Weather Forecasting - Introduction • Weather affects nearly everyone nearly every day • Weather forecasts are issued: – to save lives – reduce property damage – reduce crop damage – to let the general public know what to expect • Forecasts are often utilized to make many important decisions on a daily basis • So, how is it done, and how is it done correctly? 1 National Weather Service Mission • The National Weather Service (NWS) provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters, and ocean areas for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information data base and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community. / 2 Forecasting Tools • Weather Observations: – Surface data: – Soundings – Ship and buoy data – Satellite data – Radar data – Commercial aircraft data (ACARS) – Wind profilers • Weather Analysis:from observations to weather patterns • Numerical weather predication – using current and past observations to predicate weather in near future Atmospheric Model • Mathematical model– equations describe how atmospheric temperature, pressure, wind, and moisture change with time. • The models are programmed into the computer. • Prognostic Chart (prog): the final forecast chart representing the atmosphere at a specified future time. The MRF model The ETA model