for the chinese scale of analysis of local government borrowing（为中国的规模分析地方政府借贷）.docVIP

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for the chinese scale of analysis of local government borrowing（为中国的规模分析地方政府借贷）.doc

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for the chinese scale of analysis of local government borrowing（为中国的规模分析地方政府借贷）

For the Chinese scale of analysis of local government borrowing Abstract: The sustainability of local government borrowing on the scale of China conducted a study, through the rational expectations equilibrium model and the derivation of analysis, obtained when the government can not improve the control of the future cash flow, investors will refuse to buy government bonds, no size of the debt level of default risk than the usual size of an acceptable level of sustainability of debt is lower by Monte Carlo simulation method ? and Liaoning Province as an example of local government borrowing scale empirical analysis and forecasting. Keywords: local government; debt; feasibility; debt scale First, the sustainability of local government to determine the level of debt (A) the basic concepts of local government borrowing Local government debt is a mature Western market economy countries, the government financing system used it primarily to meet local infrastructure during the local government, municipal facilities in the demand for construction funds, usually it has a local tax as a guarantee, So in the stock market has high credibility and become an important tool for local government financing. (B) under the rational expectations equilibrium model of local government to determine the size of the debt sustainability 1 The proposed rational expectations equilibrium model in theory, as long as the size of local government bonds issued does not exceed the expected revenue surpluses, such a bond will be a continuing nature, but according to Heuristic standards of care, local government bonds and local GDP ratio should be maintained at 60% or less, in this context the sustainability of public debt only if the local government surplus funds for future major flow control Debu perfect, when the size of an approaching debt sustainability scale, rational investors be aware of the risk of default and the government refused to extend the debt for investment