物流系统2 forecast含中文.pptVIP

Demand estimates for products and services are the starting point for all the other planning in operations management. Management teams develop sales forecasts based in part on demand estimates. The sales forecasts become inputs to both business strategy and production resource forecasts. Forecasting vs. Prediction: Forecasting: Estimating future by casting forward from past data. Prediction: Estimating future based on any subjective consideration other than just past data. Three Time Ranges of Forecasting: Long Range Forecasting (over 1 years) Intermediate Range Forecasting (6 - 12 months) Short Range Forecasting (less than 6 months) What to Forecast: Demand/Price/Wage/Supply/Labor/Sales/... Economic Growth/Technology Development/ Impact of Inaccurate Forecasting: (If Plans are based on your Forecasting) If Forecasting is Consistently Higher than Actual: If Forecasting is Consistently Lower than Actual: Qualitative forecasting methods Quantitative forecasting methods Sales Force Composites Aggregation of sales personnel estimates Customer Surveys Jury of Executive Opinion The Delphi Method Individual opinions are compiled and considered. These are anonymously shared among group. Then opinion request is repeated until an overall group consensus is (hopefully) reached. Time Series Models: Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Causal Relationship Models: Regression Analysis Linear vs. Non-Linear Single vs. Multi-variable Econometric Models Principle of Forecasting: When past data (independent variables) are good indicators of the future of dependent variables. Factors in Selecting Forecasting Methods: Data Availability Cost Accuracy Tradeoff Time Horizon Qualitative Techniques: (Subjective) Used when: Data Unavailable Unknown Pattern Change (Examples: Sales of New Product/Technological Changing/..) Quantitative Techniques: (Objective) Time Series Models: Used when the most recent past data are good indicators (e.g., short range f